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12 November 2008
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Commentary
The seismic shift in world politics of last week’s US presidential election had a more local echo in the UK. A day or so later the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee, usually a prim model of prudence and timidity, lopped a full third off the prevailing bank rate. Two huge developments inside two days. We live in stirring times.
But will we remember them as quite so stirring if, in 10, 20 or 30 years’ time, we’re back in the tumbrils and turmoils of another recession because we failed to tackle the fundamental misalignments of our economic system?
Rather a lot of the people calling on governments and others to take action to alleviate the effects of the downturn do not want real change at all. Rather, they’re interested in a return to the status quo of two months or two years ago, before recent economic shocks.
Now it’s hard not to feel some sympathy for at least some of these interests. The worst thing about the crisis of the past couple of months has been the suddenness of it all: many, if not most, businesses can cope with a gradual decline and with subtle shifts between growth and contraction. Few can handle shock treatment of this kind.
That sympathy, though, isn’t to say that we ought to be looking for a direct return to the conditions that prevailed before the Lehman Brothers trigger was pulled. Or even further back.
It would be good, for example if the housing market freed up and houses started being bought and sold again; but do we really want house prices running so far ahead of normal people’s salaries again? And, a tougher one, this, though we may welcome lower petrol pump prices, do we really want to return to times when other people – not ourselves, of course – felt able to be profligate with what are probably scarce resources?
Even more fundamentally, though, we probably need to question whether the target for never-ending economic growth, year on year, is realistic, sustainable or even desirable.
John Pullin, Editor
© PE Publishing, 12 November 2008